Mid-Week Technical Outlook: FX & Commodities

A sense of caution gripped financial markets on Wednesday as anxious investors kept a close eye on the US debt ceiling negotiations. Any fresh newsflow on the debt ceiling development is likely to influence sentiment which already remains shaky amid the uncertainty. In the meantime, there have been some interesting movements across the currency and commodity space.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on this week.

EURUSD eyes 100-day SMA

The EURUSD is bearish on the daily charts. Prices are trading below the 50-day SMA and have dipped below the 1.0845 support. Sustained weakness below this point could open a path toward 1.0800 – where the 100-day SMA resides. If 1.0800 proves to be unreliable support, the next key level of interest can be found at 1.0750.

GBPUSD balances above 1.2450

A breakdown could be on the horizon for the GBPUSD if a daily close below 1.2450 is achieved. Such a development could open a path towards 1.2370 and 1.2280, respectively. If prices can keep above 1.2450, this may trigger a rebound back towards 1.2550.

AUDUSD tests the support level

It has been a choppy week for the AUDUSD with prices trading within a range. Support can be found around 0.6630 and resistance around 0.6710. Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades to the downside. A strong breakdown below 0.6630 may open a path toward 0.6570. Should prices push back above 0.6680, this may push prices back towards 0.6710 – a level just under the 200-day SMA.

USDJPY touches 200-day SMA

USDJPY bulls have been on a tear this week with prices touching the 200-day SMA on Wednesday. Bulls could switch into higher gear if this resistance is breached with the next key level of interest at 137.80. If the upside momentum runs out of steam, a decline back to 135.50 could be on the cards.

USDCAD choppy affair

If one word could describe the USDCAD’s price action this week, the best fit would be choppy. Prices have been all over the place, swinging between losses and gains. It may be wise to keep a close eye on the 1.3500 level. Sustained weakness below this point could trigger a decline towards 1.3410. If prices break above 1.3500, prices could challenge 1.3560.

Gold breaches $2000 psychological level

The strong daily close below $2000 could signal further weakness for gold in the short term with $1970 acting as a key point of interest. If prices can push back above $2000, gold may challenge $2015 and $2032, respectively.

Oil on standby?

WTI crude seems to be on standby mode with prices wobbling above $70. A rebound from this level could encourage an incline towards $73.50 and $75.50, respectively. Should prices slip below $70, this could see prices test $68 and $64.50, respectively.

EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD USDJPY Gold Oil SMA MACD Technical Analysis